01.07.2003 15:57
THE PREDOMINANCE OF PRAGMATISM

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov will be the first foreign military office head to meet with newly-appointed Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhen Marchuk. Having arrived for a three-day official visit to Kyiv June 30, Ivanov has already been received by President Leonid Kuchma who once again recalled the strategic partnership between Kyiv and Moscow.

Officially, by making this visit the Russian Minister is aiming to discuss plans for military and technical cooperation, the talks to result in signing an intergovernmental agreement on the elimination and the order of return of aircraft remaining at military plants of two countries. Nevertheless, experts believe, the focus of this visit will be made on the situation behind the An-70 project and the infrastructure of the Black Sea Fleet.

Indeed, more and more pragmatism can be seen in Ukraine-Russia relations. And even despite the fact that re-integration of Ukrainian defense and industrial companies into the Russian defense and industrial complex has achieved its greatest extent since the USSR collapse, implementation of a number of key projects is still lagging. And pretty seriously.

Russia makes use of Ukraine s military and technical service only in those fields where it still fails to close circles on its own. It is quite natural there are fewer such fields every year. Moreover, the approaches to the An-70 project show that Moscow may sacrifice strategic friendship with Kyiv to economy. Formally, it is worth speaking of security: having a common troop-carrier, Russia will to some extent depend on Ukraine. But the strategy of business forces Russia to have its own one, even though with a smaller range of duties: the state being a member of the elite club of aircraft designers must have its own troop-carrier. Therefore, against the background of pledges in loyalty to the project, it has stopped its financing. Meanwhile, the full flow of cash rushed into another joint project Tu-334. During the Paris Air Show in Le Bourget this year Russian aircraft designers openly backed its Il-76MF project, passing An-70 over in silence. Let alone the articles circulated in Paris that discredit the Ukrainian-Russian project.

It is quite probable Ivanov brought along some additional data on the project that several years ago was said to make a foundation of the Ukrainian-Russian friendship. Let us take the risk of assuming the issue of the Russian Black Sea Fleet operation in Crimea is becoming no less acute in relations of two neighboring states. It is likely to take the most of the ministers talk in a tete-a-tete mode.

Kyiv has long been trying to talk on the problem of transfer of the Black Sea Fleet littoral infrastructure. Russia is taking more than cautious stand on this. Whereas, according to Russian experts, the key factor is an opportunity to use a number of facilities for the purpose of intelligence, the problem reeks of big politics. One may recall that a year ago Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Viktor Chernomyrdin dropped a hint about the need to think of prolongation of the agreement on deployment and functioning of the Black Sea Fleet at the territory of Ukraine. Though formally the Black Sea Fleet does not disturb Ukraine much, while, according to certain Russian politicians, it even protects Ukraine s southern border, let s be frank: with the Russian fleet at its territory Ukraine s way to NATO is blocked.

It is clear that in the light of participation of the Ukrainian composition in stabilization forces in Iraq and, especially, since 12 NATO member-countries signed a protocol of intention to use the Ukrainian An-124 planes (while Ukraine has only seven of them, Russia ten), the Kremlin became worried over Ukraine s Euro-Atlantic integration. Whatever it can be, but it reeks of specific military and technical projects. Let alone the fact that Russia suffers great losses in the Iraqi direction and it will be extremely difficult for Russian companies to make their way to this market.

Ukraine, on the contrary, is now seeing a ray of light in this market. Development of Kyiv-Moscow political and military and technical ties is getting more and more crucial since the interdependence of two states is growing not only for technical but for political reasons as well. But this new stage calls for heavier pragmatism. And more compromises.

Valentyn Badrak, Center for Army Conversion and Disarmament Studies